Who will we know when Russia loses in Ukraine? Are they winning now?
When the West tries hard to negotiate and when Russia is reluctant to negotiate
This is when you know Russia may have too full a plate and may want an off ramp.
Now it’s the other way around
Russia keeps hinting that it is ready and makes a lot of overtures, and the West keeps avoiding Ukraine, demanding that it fight on and on and supply money and weapons to the extent that it affects their own economies.
It means that the West knows that any negotiation now means giving Russia victory, even peace talks now mean acknowledging that Russia has won.
The West needs an OFF RAMP
Their own victory so that they can show the world some success or progress in Ukraine mainly to the watching Taiwan.
Putin is constantly outsmarting them
They think Putin will pointlessly defend Kherson City and they could maybe kill 15 thousand Russians (loss of maybe 120 thousand Ukrainians) and use PR to show the bodies and how Ukraine took back Kherson and defeated Russia
Yet Putin repeatedly defends the senseless killing and ensures that nothing ever turns into a victory, no matter how much the Western press shouts it from the rooftops.
When Russia actually loses, they will become desperate and it could bring the world closer to nuclear war
The West would then know they are winning and immediately make all the demands for peace. The UN and everyone will be asking Putin for peace.
Right now, it’s a litmus test for me that Russia is militarily controlling the situation in Ukraine and that it hasn’t lost a quarter of 100,000 as the West claims.
If they really lost 100 thousand men, Putin would be much different and the West would quickly de-escalate knowing that Russia has lost face.
So the day you see Biden asking for a reasonable peace and calling Putin a warmonger for not accepting peace, and you see Putin flat out refuse, that’s when you know